Retail (now commerce) media is no longer the shiny new budget line item everyone’s experimenting with.

It’s a $175B+ global channel, accounting for 15.6% of total ad spend, already surpassing total TV advertising and on track for 17%+ by 2030. In the U.S., it’s expected to represent a quarter of all ad spend by 2028.

That kind of scale changes expectations.

What worked in 2024–2025—manual measurement, fragmented tech stacks, ROAS theater, and endless pilot programs, doesn’t survive at this level. In 2026, retail media enters its infrastructure era.

The winners won’t be the networks with the loudest announcements. They’ll be the ones built to operate at scale, prove value repeatedly, and adapt without ripping out their stack every 12 months.

Retail Media Isn’t “Retail” Anymore and That Changes Everything

The first thing to get right: retail media is now commerce media.

Travel, financial services, automotive, hospitality, luxury—any business that owns transaction data and first-party demand signals is now behaving like a retailer. That’s why agencies are already rolling these budgets into commerce media forecasts, not retail-only line items.

For advertisers, this means:

• More inventory

• More environments

• More buying opportunities

For publishers and RMNs, it means:

• More competition

• More complexity

• More pressure to simplify buying and reporting

In 2026, growth doesn’t come from launching another network. It comes from making it easier for brands to spend confidently across the ones that matter.

The Easy Growth Phase Is Over. Simplicity Wins.

Retail media exploded because budgets were experimental. That phase is done.

Brands are tired of managing dozens of RMNs, each with:

• Different workflows

• Different reporting standards

• Different definitions of “incremental”

In response, we’re seeing rapid consolidation of spend, not necessarily consolidation of networks.

Advertisers are increasingly routing investment through trusted ad-tech layers that let them centralize buying, pacing, governance, and measurement.

This is a structural shift.

In 2026, the question isn’t:

“How many advertisers can we onboard?”

It’s:

“How easily can advertisers operate at scale?”

That’s where infrastructure—not point solutions—becomes the differentiator.

In-Store Media Is Back and It’s a National Budget Fight

After years of hesitation, in-store retail media is no longer theoretical in North America.

By the end of 2026:

• Kroger, Walmart, CVS, Albertsons, and others will have massive digital screen networks

• In-store audio, video, and experiential formats will compete directly for national media dollars

• “Digital endcaps” (on-site and in-store) will surge as sponsored products hit saturation

In-store media has one major advantage: AI can’t intercept it.

No agent, LLM, or zero-click search result stands between a shopper and aisle seven.

But in-store scale introduces a hard operational reality:

• Inventory must load instantly

• Campaigns must pace correctly

• Creative must rotate dynamically

• Reporting must unify physical + digital exposure

That requires real ad serving—not stitched-together workarounds.

Measurement Is the Real Battleground (And ROAS Isn’t Enough)

Measurement pressure is no longer coming from marketing teams. It’s coming from the C-suite.

Retail media is being asked to justify:

• Bigger budgets

• Earlier inclusion in planning cycles

• Overlap with trade, promo, and shopper spend

At the same time, cracks are showing:

• MMMs consistently undervalue retail media

• Last-touch ROAS over-credits low-risk tactics

• One-off incrementality studies are too slow and too expensive

The industry is moving toward repeatable, always-on measurement:

• Attribution for day-to-day operations

• Incrementality for strategic decisions

• Clear separation of on-site vs off-site impact

Vendors and platforms that can’t prove incremental value—cleanly, consistently, and on time—will be deprioritized. Full stop.

Performance TV Grows Up and Brings Measurement Debt With It

Closed-loop CTV is real now. With Amazon Ads touching over 50% of ad-supported CTV inventory, performance TV has hit an inflection point.

But premium CPMs expose a flaw:

• TV doesn’t behave like search

• Last-touch ROAS breaks down fast

• Incrementality and probabilistic models matter more than ever

Retail media in 2026 isn’t about forcing every channel into the same KPI. It’s about building a measurement foundation flexible enough to support different buying behaviors without distorting outcomes.

AI, Agentic Commerce, and the Reality Check

Yes, AI agents are reshaping discovery. No, they are not killing retail media.

Here’s what is happening:

• Zero-click searches are up

• Referral traffic is down (in some cases up to 89%)

• AI-powered discovery is becoming a front door, not a replacement

Retail media adapts by:

• Expanding into new touchpoints

• Supporting AI-influenced discovery

• Reinforcing trusted, authenticated environments

Ironically, as synthetic content increases, authentic retail environments become more valuable, not less.

The next phase isn’t “agentic vs retail media.”

Its retail media extended into AI-driven discovery.

Creators, Communities, and Why Trust Still Wins

One thing hasn’t changed, and never will: people influence people.

Retail media works because it’s grounded in real behavior:

• What people actually buy

• What their communities recommend

• What they trust at the moment of decision

That’s why:

• Creator-led retail media is accelerating

• Social video is outperforming open web display

• Experiential formats are driving lifetime value, not just clicks

In a world flooded with AI-generated content, trust becomes the premium currency. Retail-owned environments—and the infrastructure behind them—are where that trust compounds.

Where AdButler Fits in the 2026 Retail Media Stack

Retail media in 2026 doesn’t change much. However, its shift is a reliance on reliable infrastructure.

AdButler exists for this exact phase of the market:

• A neutral ad server that doesn’t extract your data

• Built to support on-site, off-site, in-store, CTV, and emerging formats

• Designed for speed, control, and scale

• Flexible enough to integrate with evolving measurement and data strategies

For advertisers, that means:

• Faster-loading ads

• Cleaner delivery

• More confidence in what’s actually driving incremental sales

For publishers and RMNs, that means:

• Ownership of first-party data

• Freedom from locked-in ecosystems

• A foundation that scales without constant rebuilds

Retail media is no longer experimental media. It’s infrastructure-grade media.

And in 2026, infrastructure is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.

Talk to an AdButler specialist about building a retail media stack that’s ready for 2026.